Lumber to gold ratio breaks down, suggesting a risk-off environment

Quick Take

  • So far, 2023 has been a good year for Bitcoin and risk assets, with Bitcoin up 71%, Nvidia up 92%, and Meta up 68%.
  • The S&P 500 is up 7% while the Nasdaq is up 20%
  • However, the lumber-to-gold ratio indicates a risk-off environment, and the stock market has always followed a crash.

Highlighted are the areas where the lumber-to-gold ratio collapsed, and subsequently, the S&P 500 went down.

  • 1987 Crash
  • 1990 Bear Market
  • 2000 Tech Bubble
  • 2008 Lehman Crash
  • 2011 Summer Crash
  • 2018 4Q Correction
  • 2020 Covid Crash

As Bitcoin is somewhat correlated to the US stock market this could mean further headwinds for Bitcoin.

Lumber to Gold Ratio: (Source: Trading View)
Lumber to Gold Ratio: (Source: Trading View)

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