GBTC discount narrows during SEC hearing, yield curve inversion deepens; 60% probability for 50bps hike

Quick Take

Result of Powell Speaking

• The US 10-year minus 02 years has reached -100 bps inversion.
• The forward growth outlook is a full percentage point lower than the expected policy rate.
• Levels of policy error not achieved since February 1980.
• Inversion points to a recession, but a larger inversion doesn’t not mean a faster or deeper recession.
• While the terminal rate is now forecasted at 5.6% for October 2023 and a 60% probability of a 50bps rate hike during the March FOMC meeting.

Result of Grayscale vs. SEC hearing

• So far, GBTC is up roughly 9% today due to the current hearing, Grayscale vs. SEC.
• The discount to NAV is roughly 40%, which assumes Grayscale’s chances of a spot ETF have increased.
• The gap was as narrow as -35%.
• GBTC would have a pathway to convert to NAV.
• BTC remains roughly flat for the day at $22,300

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