Bitcoin’s correlation with gold strengthens amid recessionary signals

Quick Take

Following a disappointing US jobs report, which revealed an unemployment spike to 4.3% and the addition of just 114,000 jobs, the Sahm Rule has been triggered, according to Head of Investment Strategy Liz Thomas at SoFi.

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: (Source: Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, Liz Thomas)
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: (Source: Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, Liz Thomas)

Based on the unemployment rate, this indicator signals a recession is already underway if the unemployment rate, calculated using a three-month moving average, rises by half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.

Despite the bad jobs report, Bitcoin remains resilient and maintained a strong position at around $65,000 before US markets opened. Since it has fallen to around $63,700 as of press time. According to Newhedge data, Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with major equity indices QQQ and SPY is in negative territory. This decoupling suggests that Bitcoin is not following as steep a downward trend as US equities. Additionally, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has increased to 0.32 from negative levels just a few weeks ago, indicating a stronger relationship with the traditional safe-haven asset.

Gold is also performing well, trending upwards by 1% on Aug. 1 and nearing the $2,500 per ounce mark.

BTC Correlations vs SPY, QQQ and GLD): (Source: Newhedge)
BTC Correlations vs SPY, QQQ, and GLD): (Source: Newhedge)

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