Bitcoin breaks out of all realized price levels for only its 5th time

Definition

Realized Price reflects the aggregate price when each coin was last spent on-chain. Using Short- and Long-Term Holder heuristics, we can calculate the realized price (estimated average acquisition price) for each investor cohort.

•  The Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for the entire coin supply.
•  Short-Term Holder Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which were moved within the last 155 days. These reflect the most probable coins to be spent on any given day.
•  Long-Term Holder Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which have not moved within the last 155 days. These reflect the least probable coins to be spent on any given day.
•  Periods where spot price falls below all cost basis models typically occur in deep bear markets where the average investor, irrespective of hold time, is holding an unrealized loss.

Quick Take

• During late-stage bear markets, Bitcoin falls below all realized price models; this was seen in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2022 and a very short brief period for 2020.
• Realized price is currently $19,777
• The short-term holder realized price is currently $18,493
• The long-term holder realized price is currently $22,437
• Essential Bitcoin holds these current realized price levels to confirm the worst is behind us

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