Research: Bitcoin long-term holders remain bullish despite losses

Bitcoin’s (BTC) year-long decline has left several holders with unrealized losses, including long-term holders (LTH) who have held the coin for at least six months.

However, CryptoSlate’s analysis of Glassnode data showed that this group of investors remains bullish on the flagship digital asset.

According to Glassnode data, the cohort holds a record-high amount of Bitcoin –13.8 million. The group is also considered the smart money of the Bitcoin ecosystem because they usually accumulate during bear markets and sell during bull runs.

For context, long-term holders added around 1 million BTC to their holdings in November. This was because LUNA’s crash in May triggered a significant dip in price that allowed traders to accumulate the asset. Those that bought Bitcoin at the time are now part of this cohort, as they have held for the last six months.

Long-term holders at ATH despite Nov. capitulation

Meanwhile, the recent FTX collapse led to a minor capitulation among LTH, causing their supply to drop slightly in early November. Despite this, the Glassnode data chart below shows that long-term holders’ supply is still at an all-time high.

For many, that’s bullish because investors are not capitulating. Ark Investment shares this view, as it said the data point indicates the cohort’s “long-term focus and high conviction, despite recent events.”

6 million BTCs held at a loss by long-term holders

Glassnode data, as analyzed by CryptoSlate, showed that long-term holders might be holding their Bitcoin because they stand to incur substantial losses if they sell.

According to the data, around 6 million BTC held by long-term holders is currently at a loss –the highest ever.

The last time the group had this much-unrealized losses was in 2015, 2019, and 2020 when they held over 5 million BTC.

This cycle’s long-term holders recorded the two biggest losses

Further analysis by CryptoSlate showed that long-term holders recorded two of the biggest losses in history during this market cycle.

According to Glassnode data, this cycle’s long-term holders lost 0.09% of BTC’s market cap per day in June and November when the industry reeled from the collapse of Terra’s ecosystem and FTX’s crash. This was only surpassed by losses recorded in 2015 and 2019.

Regardless of these huge losses, 78% of BTC’s entire supply is still held by long-term holders, similar to the 2015 bear market levels.

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